Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 13?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 0.3¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$111.21

Combined PnL

-$945.75

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 0.3¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$84.39

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$191.41

No8 traders

Total Value$26.81

Total Shares1,442

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Yesavg 30.2¢	$83.29	$84.39	+$191.41	56% 1073-841 (1914)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$43.93	$16.89	-$27.04	73% 778-291 (1069)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 81.7¢	$1.4K	$4.38	-$749.94	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$47.21	$3.42	-$32.03	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 82.3¢	$398.13	$1.39	-$251.26	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Noavg 58.9¢	$65.14	$0.55	-$64.59	71% 76-31 (107)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$26.2	$0.15	-$26.05	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.25	$0.03	-$2.23	37% 165-281 (446)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 9.2¢	$2.68	$0	+$15.98	45% 4955-6107 (11062)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.29

Value

$84.39

PnL

+$191.41

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$43.93

Value

$16.89

PnL

-$27.04

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$1,416.86

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$749.94

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$47.21

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$32.03

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$398.13

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$251.26

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Invested

$65.14

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$64.59

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$26.2

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$26.05

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.23

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.68

Value

PnL

+$15.98

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.