Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on November 12?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 12

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$131.27

Combined PnL

-$58.07

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$66.8

Total Shares1,765

Combined PnL-$59.46

No6 traders

Total Value$64.47

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$1.39

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$47.29	$32.53	-$14.75	63% 2143-1253 (3396)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.34	$29.2	-$31.13	59% 1163-798 (1961)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$25.07	$24.42	-$0.1	53% 920-807 (1727)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 92¢	$19.66	$20.93	+$1.28	65% 4171-2204 (6375)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$5.44	$5.56	+$0.12	48% 488-534 (1022)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$28.64	$5.07	-$13.58	36% 414-750 (1164)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$5	$5.04	+$0.04	62% 470-291 (761)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.95	$4.99	+$0.04	62% 470-289 (759)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$3.5	$3.53	+$0.03	99% 667-8 (675)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.29

Value

$32.53

PnL

-$14.75

Record

63%

2143-1253 (3396)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$31.13

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.07

Value

$24.42

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.66

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$1.28

Record

65%

4171-2204 (6375)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

488-534 (1022)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.64

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$13.58

Record

36%

414-750 (1164)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

62%

470-291 (761)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

62%

470-289 (759)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

667-8 (675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.