Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 29¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$159.18
$8.3
Research grade
AvoidYes at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $72.23 | $73.34 | +$1.11 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.6¢ | $29.53 | $39.72 | +$10.19 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $34.51 | $22.55 | -$7.05 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $11.53 | $15.95 | +$4.42 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $6.06 | $5.8 | -$0.26 | 66% 4109-2134 (6243) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $1.92 | $1.82 | -$0.1 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
Invested
$72.23
Value
$73.34
PnL
+$1.11
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$29.53
Value
$39.72
PnL
+$10.19
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$34.51
Value
$22.55
PnL
-$7.05
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
Invested
$11.53
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$4.42
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$0.26
Record
66%
4109-2134 (6243)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$1.82
PnL
-$0.1
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.