Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $525 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$524.63
$54.41
76.3¢ → 84.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $253.07 | $300.46 | +$47.4 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $148.93 | $152.76 | +$3.83 | 68% 2062-951 (3013) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $52.05 | $53.55 | +$1.5 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $10.41 | $12.13 | +$1.72 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $5.75 | $5.72 | -$0.03 | 80% 550-134 (684) |
Invested
$253.07
Value
$300.46
PnL
+$47.4
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$148.93
Value
$152.76
PnL
+$3.83
Record
68%
2062-951 (3013)
Invested
$52.05
Value
$53.55
PnL
+$1.5
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$1.72
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$5.72
PnL
-$0.03
Record
80%
550-134 (684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.