Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 69¢ · $96 held · ended Nov 12

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$95.99

Combined PnL

$47.09

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$82.03

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$50.47

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.96

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$3.38

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$20.94	$22.76	+$1.82	76% 675-216 (891)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$28.06	$21.17	-$4.46	53% 925-815 (1740)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$193.26	$13.96	-$3.38	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 79.7¢	$540.56	$13.57	+$76.37	59% 1163-798 (1961)
24 241532532432	Noavg 89.1¢	$224.75	$10.91	-$24.55	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4.03	$4.76	+$0.72	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$3.78	$4.7	+$0.92	62% 471-291 (762)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.51	$4.16	-$0.35	47% 524-596 (1120)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.94

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$1.82

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.06

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$4.46

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$193.26

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$3.38

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$540.56

Value

$13.57

PnL

+$76.37

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

241532532432

Invested

$224.75

Value

$10.91

PnL

-$24.55

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.03

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.72

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.92

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.35

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.