Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $556 held · ended Nov 12

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$555.97

Combined PnL

$23.51

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 77¢

-17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$359.62

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$71.95

Yes2 traders

Total Value$196.35

Total Shares931

Combined PnL+$95.46

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94¢	$374.87	$297.35	-$62.5	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.34	$138.71	+$78.38	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$40.55	$57.64	+$17.09	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$64.43	$38.29	-$8.86	53% 922-814 (1736)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$10.69	$11.47	+$0.77	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.36	$4.48	-$0.87	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$3.88	$4.03	+$0.15	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.65	$4.01	-$0.64	42% 838-1166 (2004)

241532532432

Invested

$374.87

Value

$297.35

PnL

-$62.5

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$138.71

PnL

+$78.38

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.55

Value

$57.64

PnL

+$17.09

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.43

Value

$38.29

PnL

-$8.86

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$11.47

PnL

+$0.77

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.36

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.87

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.64

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.