Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on November 12?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 73¢ · $552 held · ended Nov 12

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$552.44

Combined PnL

-$28.82

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 73.2¢

-23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$346.96

Total Shares516

Combined PnL-$148.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$205.48

Total Shares854

Combined PnL+$119.54

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.9¢	$413.55	$288.08	-$125.48	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.34	$153.98	+$93.64	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.4¢	$25.6	$51.5	+$25.9	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$46.62	$31.94	-$14.67	53% 922-814 (1736)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$16.9	$13.09	-$3.81	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.52	$3.73	-$1.78	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$4.13	$3.4	-$0.72	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$3.77	$3.36	-$0.41	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$4.84	$3.35	-$1.49	45% 521-645 (1166)

241532532432

Invested

$413.55

Value

$288.08

PnL

-$125.48

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$153.98

PnL

+$93.64

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.6

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$25.9

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.62

Value

$31.94

PnL

-$14.67

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.9

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$3.81

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.52

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$1.78

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0.41

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$1.49

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.1%

73.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.