Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on November 12?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 86¢ · $415 held · ended Nov 12

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$414.83

Combined PnL

$20.16

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 86.4¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$287.15

Total Shares343

Combined PnL-$34.28

Yes2 traders

Total Value$127.67

Total Shares805

Combined PnL+$54.44

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.4¢	$203.98	$180.9	-$23.08	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.34	$105.2	+$44.86	59% 1163-798 (1961)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$97.37	$88.4	-$8.91	53% 922-814 (1736)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.89	$22.47	+$9.58	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$10.67	$9.21	-$1.45	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.96	$4.34	-$0.62	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.52	$4.3	-$0.22	47% 524-596 (1120)

241532532432

Invested

$203.98

Value

$180.9

PnL

-$23.08

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$105.2

PnL

+$44.86

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$97.37

Value

$88.4

PnL

-$8.91

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.89

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$9.58

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.67

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.34

PnL

-$0.62

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.