Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on November 12?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $620 held · ended Nov 12

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$619.87

Combined PnL

-$2.39

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 77.4¢

-19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$451.52

Total Shares573

Combined PnL-$97.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$168.34

Total Shares805

Combined PnL+$95.12

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.4¢	$409.15	$331.17	-$77.98	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.34	$138.71	+$78.38	59% 1163-798 (1961)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$97.57	$68.13	-$14.45	53% 922-814 (1736)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$33.55	$31.69	-$1.86	76% 675-216 (891)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.89	$29.63	+$16.74	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.62	$4.46	-$1.17	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.06	$4.05	-$0.01	62% 471-291 (762)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.05	$4.03	-$1.02	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.01	$4	-$0.01	45% 521-645 (1166)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5	$3.99	-$1.01	58% 481-347 (828)

241532532432

Invested

$409.15

Value

$331.17

PnL

-$77.98

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$138.71

PnL

+$78.38

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$97.57

Value

$68.13

PnL

-$14.45

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.55

Value

$31.69

PnL

-$1.86

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.89

Value

$29.63

PnL

+$16.74

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$1.17

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$1.02

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$1.01

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.