Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $117 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$116.66
$13.46
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $82.18 | $82.02 | -$0.16 | 99% 288-2 (290) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $8.37 | $15.75 | +$7.38 | 68% 2070-957 (3027) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $19.73 | $9.99 | +$0.27 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $2.82 | $8.64 | +$5.82 | 32% 299-629 (928) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.07 | $0.21 | +$0.14 | 45% 391-471 (862) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.04 | $0.06 | +$0.02 | 49% 353-368 (721) |
Invested
$82.18
Value
$82.02
PnL
-$0.16
Record
99%
288-2 (290)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$15.75
PnL
+$7.38
Record
68%
2070-957 (3027)
Invested
$19.73
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.27
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$8.64
PnL
+$5.82
Record
32%
299-629 (928)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.14
Record
45%
391-471 (862)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
353-368 (721)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.