Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on November 11?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 7.3¢ · $262 held · ended Nov 11

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$261.76

Combined PnL

$0.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$23.38

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$0.44

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.29

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$1

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67ARB<$100	Noavg 94¢	$192.13	$162.02	-$30.11	68% 2064-954 (3018)
└ No leg	Noavg 94¢	$142.12	$127.91	-$14.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.1¢	$50.01	$34.11	-$15.9
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 93¢	$89.28	$73.07	-$16.21	32% 290-625 (915)
└ No leg	Noavg 93¢	$47.43	$43.15	-$4.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.7¢	$41.85	$29.92	-$11.93
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$33.23	$23.38	-$0.44	54% 565-475 (1040)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.09	$2.22	+$1.13	66% 4111-2135 (6246)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$1.09	$0.96	-$0.13	47% 356-402 (758)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$0.1	$0.11	+$0.01	48% 343-365 (708)

hello.67ARB<$100

Invested

$192.13

Value

$162.02

PnL

-$30.11

Record

68%

2064-954 (3018)

Both legs:

No$142.1294¢-$14.21

Yes$50.0110.1¢-$15.9

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$89.28

Value

$73.07

PnL

-$16.21

Record

32%

290-625 (915)

Both legs:

No$47.4393¢-$4.28

Yes$41.859.7¢-$11.93

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.23

Value

$23.38

PnL

-$0.44

Record

54%

565-475 (1040)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$1.13

Record

66%

4111-2135 (6246)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.7%

7.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1045.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

1145.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.