Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$765.65
-$35.14
79¢ → 73.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $393.28 | $362.46 | -$30.82 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $283.8 | $264.15 | -$19.65 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $70.28 | $89.55 | +$19.27 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $52.98 | $34.29 | -$2.93 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $16.2 | $15.2 | -$1 | 82% 506-111 (617) |
Invested
$393.28
Value
$362.46
PnL
-$30.82
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$283.8
Value
$264.15
PnL
-$19.65
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$70.28
Value
$89.55
PnL
+$19.27
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$52.98
Value
$34.29
PnL
-$2.93
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$15.2
PnL
-$1
Record
82%
506-111 (617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.