Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on November 11?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 78¢ · $345 held · ended Nov 11

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$345.42

Combined PnL

$9.18

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 78¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$340.43

Total Shares394

Combined PnL+$9.01

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.99

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0.17

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 62.4¢	$193.15	$194.7	+$1.55	68% 2070-957 (3027)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$71.93	$73.77	+$1.84	80% 570-145 (715)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$56.58	$62.18	+$5.6	32% 299-629 (928)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66¢	$9.76	$9.77	+$0.02	55% 581-483 (1064)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.61	$3.04	+$1.42	66% 4116-2138 (6254)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$1.14	$0.82	-$0.31	43% 386-510 (896)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.97	$0.67	-$0.31	47% 368-407 (775)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.1	$0.46	-$0.64	41% 700-997 (1697)

hello.67

Invested

$193.15

Value

$194.7

PnL

+$1.55

Record

68%

2070-957 (3027)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$71.93

Value

$73.77

PnL

+$1.84

Record

80%

570-145 (715)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$56.58

Value

$62.18

PnL

+$5.6

Record

32%

299-629 (928)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

581-483 (1064)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$1.42

Record

66%

4116-2138 (6254)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.31

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.64

Record

41%

700-997 (1697)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.