Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on November 1?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $207 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$207.06
$167.98
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $10.48 | $48.21 | +$170.42 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $31.54 | $42.44 | -$5.28 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $65.05 | $32.44 | +$2.4 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $30.48 | $30.16 | -$0.12 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $10.79 | $25.06 | +$0.54 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $19.18 | $16.84 | -$2.34 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $22.45 | $11.93 | +$2.37 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
Invested
$10.48
Value
$48.21
PnL
+$170.42
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$31.54
Value
$42.44
PnL
-$5.28
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$65.05
Value
$32.44
PnL
+$2.4
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$30.48
Value
$30.16
PnL
-$0.12
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Invested
$10.79
Value
$25.06
PnL
+$0.54
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$16.84
PnL
-$2.34
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
Invested
$22.45
Value
$11.93
PnL
+$2.37
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.