Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $562 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$561.92
$0.43
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 68.6¢ | $336.04 | $424.46 | +$101.66 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23¢ | $199.49 | $217.19 | +$99.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.6¢ | $218.66 | $207.27 | +$1.84 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $149.63 | $113.23 | -$21.02 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.5¢ | $94.97 | $81.78 | -$13.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $39 | $31.45 | -$7.55 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $23.1 | $17.16 | -$2.88 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $2.52 | $5.4 | +$2.87 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $1.23 | $1.67 | +$0.44 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
Invested
$336.04
Value
$424.46
PnL
+$101.66
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$149.63
Value
$113.23
PnL
-$21.02
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.1
Value
$17.16
PnL
-$2.88
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$2.87
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.67
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.