Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $441 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$440.58
-$5.42
77.3¢ → 79¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $201.55 | $200.49 | -$1.06 | 50% 1825-1804 (3629) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $89.68 | $94.4 | +$4.72 | 47% 665-744 (1409) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $95.41 | $86.74 | -$8.67 | 55% 410-333 (743) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $50.72 | $54.12 | -$0.29 | 59% 1805-1255 (3060) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $5.99 | $4.83 | -$0.12 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
Invested
$201.55
Value
$200.49
PnL
-$1.06
Record
50%
1825-1804 (3629)
Invested
$89.68
Value
$94.4
PnL
+$4.72
Record
47%
665-744 (1409)
Invested
$95.41
Value
$86.74
PnL
-$8.67
Record
55%
410-333 (743)
Invested
$50.72
Value
$54.12
PnL
-$0.29
Record
59%
1805-1255 (3060)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$4.83
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.