Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 30?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $39 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$38.93
$0.59
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $20.14 | $20.01 | -$0.04 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $17.96 | -$0.24 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $0.88 | $0.97 | +$0.87 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.