Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $477 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$477.11
-$73.2
26.9¢ → 25¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 83¢ | $174.78 | $162.15 | -$11.58 | 56% 368-292 (660) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $221.99 | $150.76 | -$71.24 | 47% 641-724 (1365) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $111.81 | $100.01 | -$1.45 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79¢ | $79 | $80 | +$0.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $26.04 | $20 | -$2.42 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $30.91 | $33.84 | +$2.92 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $22.97 | $30.36 | +$6.7 | 59% 1738-1204 (2942) |
Invested
$174.78
Value
$162.15
PnL
-$11.58
Record
56%
368-292 (660)
Invested
$221.99
Value
$150.76
PnL
-$71.24
Record
47%
641-724 (1365)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$111.81
Value
$100.01
PnL
-$1.45
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.91
Value
$33.84
PnL
+$2.92
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
Invested
$22.97
Value
$30.36
PnL
+$6.7
Record
59%
1738-1204 (2942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.