Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $549 held · ends Oct 29

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$549.06

Combined PnL

-$4.84

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 68.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$488.67

Total Shares629

Combined PnL-$8.7

Yes2 traders

Total Value$60.39

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$3.86

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 75.2¢	$398.43	$389.22	-$9.21	47% 606-688 (1294)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$53.6	$57.29	+$3.69	60% 1652-1111 (2763)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70¢	$50.5	$50	-$0.5	24% 285-919 (1204)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 80¢	$48.43	$49.45	+$1.02	50% 1694-1679 (3373)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.93	$3.11	+$0.18	57% 13319-10177 (23496)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$398.43

Value

$389.22

PnL

-$9.21

Record

47%

606-688 (1294)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.6

Value

$57.29

PnL

+$3.69

Record

60%

1652-1111 (2763)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.5

Record

24%

285-919 (1204)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$48.43

Value

$49.45

PnL

+$1.02

Record

50%

1694-1679 (3373)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

13319-10177 (23496)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.