Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 28?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 48¢ · $97 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$96.53
-$7.63
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $67.27 | $68.27 | -$4.69 | 55% 266-222 (488) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $19.2 | $20 | -$0.4 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 59.7¢ | $11.42 | $8.26 | -$2.54 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.