Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 27?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $730 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
1 arb excluded
$730.36
-$67.39
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $450.34 | $374.22 | -$76.11 | 46% 559-650 (1209) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $175.97 | $169.51 | -$2.92 | 31% 273-604 (877) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.4¢ | $112.61 | $123.74 | +$10.66 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35¢ | $59.39 | $45.77 | -$13.58 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 66.1¢ | $147.57 | $163.02 | +$6.52 | 55% 221-183 (404) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $10.96 | $11.03 | +$0.07 | 57% 12917-9835 (22752) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $7.31 | $8.76 | +$1.45 | 61% 1532-972 (2504) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $3.13 | $3.82 | +$0.69 | 53% 6241-5478 (11719) |
Invested
$450.34
Value
$374.22
PnL
-$76.11
Record
46%
559-650 (1209)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$175.97
Value
$169.51
PnL
-$2.92
Record
31%
273-604 (877)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.57
Value
$163.02
PnL
+$6.52
Record
55%
221-183 (404)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$11.03
PnL
+$0.07
Record
57%
12917-9835 (22752)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$8.76
PnL
+$1.45
Record
61%
1532-972 (2504)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$3.82
PnL
+$0.69
Record
53%
6241-5478 (11719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.