Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 5?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $343 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$343.36
$6.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $419.34 | $279.56 | +$52.26 | 44% 810-1039 (1849) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.1¢ | $112.07 | $140.38 | +$28.31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $115.23 | $139.18 | +$23.96 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $24.07 | $27.36 | +$3.29 | 54% 10084-8706 (18790) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $23.67 | $27.16 | +$3.5 | 58% 19680-14468 (34148) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $9.22 | $9.27 | +$0.05 | 53% 22809-20010 (42819) |
Invested
$419.34
Value
$279.56
PnL
+$52.26
Record
44%
810-1039 (1849)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.07
Value
$27.36
PnL
+$3.29
Record
54%
10084-8706 (18790)
Invested
$23.67
Value
$27.16
PnL
+$3.5
Record
58%
19680-14468 (34148)
Invested
$9.22
Value
$9.27
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
22809-20010 (42819)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.