Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $95 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$95.2

Combined PnL

-$12.74

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$94.46

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$0.09

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.74

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$12.65

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.84	$39.8	-$0.04	53% 7479-6612 (14091)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$20.28	$20.19	-$0.09	47% 888-1008 (1896)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$17.36	$17.41	+$0.05	33% 83-166 (249)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$14.57	$14.56	-$0.01	34% 352-672 (1024)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1609-24 (1633)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.44	$0.33	-$4.97	30% 310-740 (1050)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$66.85	$0.19	-$6.63	42% 5214-7125 (12339)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.22	$0.13	-$1.09	31% 43-97 (140)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.06	$0.1	+$0.04	41% 277-406 (683)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.84

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

7479-6612 (14091)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

$20.19

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

888-1008 (1896)

123987456<$100

Invested

$17.36

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$14.57

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

352-672 (1024)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$4.97

Record

30%

310-740 (1050)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.85

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$6.63

Record

42%

5214-7125 (12339)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.09

Record

31%

43-97 (140)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

277-406 (683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.