Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 15?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$133.61
-$4.46
92.8¢ → 82.8¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $52.04 | $42.78 | -$9.27 | 53% 7447-6561 (14008) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $26.42 | $24.9 | -$1.52 | 71% 939-382 (1321) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $8.15 | $21.89 | +$13.74 | 42% 783-1092 (1875) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $33.97 | $21.59 | -$2.66 | 53% 2282-2055 (4337) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $14.15 | $11.46 | -$2.69 | 31% 1115-2464 (3579) |
VI vibing123<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $13.02 | $10.96 | -$2.06 | 61% 1190-746 (1936) |
Invested
$52.04
Value
$42.78
PnL
-$9.27
Record
53%
7447-6561 (14008)
Invested
$26.42
Value
$24.9
PnL
-$1.52
Record
71%
939-382 (1321)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$21.89
PnL
+$13.74
Record
42%
783-1092 (1875)
Invested
$33.97
Value
$21.59
PnL
-$2.66
Record
53%
2282-2055 (4337)
Invested
$14.15
Value
$11.46
PnL
-$2.69
Record
31%
1115-2464 (3579)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$10.96
PnL
-$2.06
Record
61%
1190-746 (1936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.