Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on November 15?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 44¢ · $889 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$888.51
-$20.72
75.1¢ → 43.5¢
-42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $207.55 | $429.98 | +$222.43 | 54% 1237-1050 (2287) |
VI vibing123CTR | Noavg 76.8¢ | $493.01 | $295.32 | -$197.69 | 61% 1190-746 (1936) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $102.67 | $73.18 | +$2.05 | 42% 783-1092 (1875) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Noavg 77¢ | $169.59 | $39.23 | -$42.75 | 29% 293-715 (1008) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $31.23 | $25.13 | -$6.1 | 53% 7447-6561 (14008) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $27.13 | $14.38 | +$1.86 | 53% 2282-2055 (4337) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 56.1¢ | $8.91 | $8.98 | +$0.07 | 71% 939-382 (1321) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.3 | -$0.6 | 14% 101-606 (707) |
Invested
$207.55
Value
$429.98
PnL
+$222.43
Record
54%
1237-1050 (2287)
Invested
$493.01
Value
$295.32
PnL
-$197.69
Record
61%
1190-746 (1936)
Invested
$102.67
Value
$73.18
PnL
+$2.05
Record
42%
783-1092 (1875)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$169.59
Value
$39.23
PnL
-$42.75
Record
29%
293-715 (1008)
Invested
$31.23
Value
$25.13
PnL
-$6.1
Record
53%
7447-6561 (14008)
Invested
$27.13
Value
$14.38
PnL
+$1.86
Record
53%
2282-2055 (4337)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$8.98
PnL
+$0.07
Record
71%
939-382 (1321)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.6
Record
14%
101-606 (707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.