Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 15?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 78¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$253.55
$34.39
60.3¢ → 77.5¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $84.63 | $116.09 | +$31.46 | 61% 1190-746 (1936) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $58.78 | $49.53 | -$9.25 | 42% 783-1092 (1875) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $34.86 | $41.52 | +$6.66 | 53% 7447-6561 (14008) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $15.49 | $16.64 | +$1.14 | 71% 939-382 (1321) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $19.97 | $14.53 | -$1.29 | 53% 2282-2055 (4337) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $9.66 | $11.12 | +$1.46 | 35% 325-598 (923) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.22 | $3.22 | +$2 | 32% 41-88 (129) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.44 | $0.9 | +$2.21 | 24% 779-2522 (3301) |
Invested
$84.63
Value
$116.09
PnL
+$31.46
Record
61%
1190-746 (1936)
Invested
$58.78
Value
$49.53
PnL
-$9.25
Record
42%
783-1092 (1875)
Invested
$34.86
Value
$41.52
PnL
+$6.66
Record
53%
7447-6561 (14008)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$16.64
PnL
+$1.14
Record
71%
939-382 (1321)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$14.53
PnL
-$1.29
Record
53%
2282-2055 (4337)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$11.12
PnL
+$1.46
Record
35%
325-598 (923)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$2
Record
32%
41-88 (129)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$2.21
Record
24%
779-2522 (3301)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.