Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$230.52

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 96.4¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,043

Combined PnL+$155.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$94.02

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL-$386.11

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 79.7¢	$419.54	$514.55	+$95.01	54% 1237-1050 (2287)
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.7¢	$376.33	$388.73	+$12.41	42% 783-1092 (1875)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$479.32	$93.11	-$386.21	61% 1190-746 (1936)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$46.3	$53.43	+$7.12	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 75.4¢	$124.52	$26.61	+$9.68	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
Haradwaith	Noavg 74.3¢	$168.86	$23.03	+$28.77	29% 293-715 (1008)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 80¢	$11.7	$14.31	+$2.6	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.22	$0.63	-$0.59	32% 41-88 (129)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.05	$0.28	+$0.69	24% 779-2522 (3301)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$419.54

Value

$514.55

PnL

+$95.01

Record

54%

1237-1050 (2287)

241532532432

Invested

$376.33

Value

$388.73

PnL

+$12.41

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$479.32

Value

$93.11

PnL

-$386.21

Record

61%

1190-746 (1936)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.3

Value

$53.43

PnL

+$7.12

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

ghorrock

Invested

$124.52

Value

$26.61

PnL

+$9.68

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Haradwaith

Invested

$168.86

Value

$23.03

PnL

+$28.77

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$14.31

PnL

+$2.6

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.59

Record

32%

41-88 (129)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.69

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.