Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on November 15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $207 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$206.89

Combined PnL

-$44.24

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 99.7¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$203.72

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$4.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.16

Total Shares902

Combined PnL-$48.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$97.58	$99.05	+$1.47	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$53.52	$54.08	+$0.57	53% 7479-6612 (14091)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$34.59	$36.11	+$1.51	53% 2306-2072 (4378)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$14.02	$14.48	+$0.47	38% 317-524 (841)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$49.23	$3.06	-$46.17	61% 1202-765 (1967)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.22	$0.05	-$1.17	31% 43-97 (140)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.13	$0.04	-$0.1	41% 277-406 (683)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.3	$0.02	-$0.82	24% 789-2561 (3350)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$97.58

Value

$99.05

PnL

+$1.47

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$53.52

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

7479-6612 (14091)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.59

Value

$36.11

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

2306-2072 (4378)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$14.02

Value

$14.48

PnL

+$0.47

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.23

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$46.17

Record

61%

1202-765 (1967)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.17

Record

31%

43-97 (140)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

277-406 (683)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.82

Record

24%

789-2561 (3350)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.