Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 91¢ · $442 held · ends Nov 14

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$441.65

Combined PnL

-$1.25

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 91¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$303.39

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$1.86

Yes4 traders

Total Value$138.27

Total Shares1,519

Combined PnL+$0.61

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 91.9¢	$200.39	$198.38	-$2.01	62% 1125-676 (1801)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$83.77	$90.29	+$6.52	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$37.16	$36.48	-$0.68	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
Haradwaith	Noavg 91.5¢	$263.64	$32.49	+$0.54	31% 114-255 (369)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$17.31	$22.41	+$5.1	39% 579-908 (1487)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$19.71	$20.15	+$0.44	73% 795-298 (1093)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$24.4	$15.89	-$0.14	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$178.09	$14.17	-$11.6	26% 43-125 (168)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.82	$11.4	+$0.58	45% 4975-6198 (11173)

vibing123

Invested

$200.39

Value

$198.38

PnL

-$2.01

Record

62%

1125-676 (1801)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.77

Value

$90.29

PnL

+$6.52

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.16

Value

$36.48

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Haradwaith

Invested

$263.64

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$0.54

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.31

Value

$22.41

PnL

+$5.1

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.71

Value

$20.15

PnL

+$0.44

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.4

Value

$15.89

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.09

Value

$14.17

PnL

-$11.6

Record

26%

43-125 (168)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.82

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.58

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.