Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 14?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 60¢ · $603 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$603.34
-$91.56
74.3¢ → 60¢
-19% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 77¢ | $492.7 | $377.6 | -$115.1 | 62% 1125-676 (1801) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $63.56 | $78.64 | +$15.08 | 56% 1200-949 (2149) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $85 | $73.75 | -$11.25 | 31% 225-501 (726) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $24 | $23.6 | -$0.4 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $26.78 | $23.44 | -$3.34 | 73% 795-298 (1093) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $21.68 | $17.23 | +$1.46 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $8.3 | $7.2 | -$1.1 | 31% 190-428 (618) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $58.48 | $1.65 | +$23.1 | 36% 3652-6517 (10169) |
Invested
$492.7
Value
$377.6
PnL
-$115.1
Record
62%
1125-676 (1801)
Invested
$63.56
Value
$78.64
PnL
+$15.08
Record
56%
1200-949 (2149)
Invested
$85
Value
$73.75
PnL
-$11.25
Record
31%
225-501 (726)
Invested
$24
Value
$23.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$26.78
Value
$23.44
PnL
-$3.34
Record
73%
795-298 (1093)
Invested
$21.68
Value
$17.23
PnL
+$1.46
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$8.3
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$1.1
Record
31%
190-428 (618)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$58.48
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$23.1
Record
36%
3652-6517 (10169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.