Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on November 14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $942 held · ends Nov 14

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$942.34

Combined PnL

$177.67

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 61¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$757.26

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL+$54.44

Yes5 traders

Total Value$185.07

Total Shares474

Combined PnL+$123.23

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 57.5¢	$496.44	$530.52	+$34.08	62% 1125-676 (1801)
HE hello.67	Noavg 61.5¢	$308.69	$118.63	+$5.38	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$42.69	$99.03	+$92.32	26% 43-125 (168)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 48¢	$60	$76.84	+$16.84	27% 976-2603 (3579)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$20.35	$27.26	+$29.22	31% 114-255 (369)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.4	$24.59	-$1.81	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$24.99	$22.61	-$2.38	56% 1200-949 (2149)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.3¢	$28.91	$19.79	+$1.46	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.8¢	$53.77	$16.38	+$2.61	39% 579-908 (1487)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.74	$6.68	-$0.06	73% 795-298 (1093)

vibing123

Invested

$496.44

Value

$530.52

PnL

+$34.08

Record

62%

1125-676 (1801)

hello.67

Invested

$308.69

Value

$118.63

PnL

+$5.38

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.69

Value

$99.03

PnL

+$92.32

Record

26%

43-125 (168)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$76.84

PnL

+$16.84

Record

27%

976-2603 (3579)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.35

Value

$27.26

PnL

+$29.22

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$24.59

PnL

-$1.81

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$2.38

Record

56%

1200-949 (2149)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.91

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.77

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$2.61

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$0.06

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.