Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 14?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 9.8¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$145.55

Smart Money Entry

20.1¢ → 9.8¢

-51% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$568.43

Total Shares2,471

Combined PnL+$79.61

No7 traders

Total Value$442.03

Total Shares484

Combined PnL+$65.94

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$481.3	$544.64	+$63.34	62% 1125-676 (1801)
24 241532532432	Noavg 76.9¢	$179.35	$212.81	+$33.46	39% 579-908 (1487)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 83¢	$76.41	$83.93	+$7.52	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$48.74	$57.46	+$8.71	73% 795-298 (1093)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$56.11	$45.93	+$4.21	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$32.62	$36.48	+$3.86	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.7¢	$62.62	$23.79	+$16.27	31% 114-255 (369)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$4.56	$4.52	-$0.04	29% 60-149 (209)
balthazar	Noavg 84.1¢	$100.88	$0.91	+$8.21	45% 4975-6198 (11173)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$481.3

Value

$544.64

PnL

+$63.34

Record

62%

1125-676 (1801)

241532532432

Invested

$179.35

Value

$212.81

PnL

+$33.46

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$76.41

Value

$83.93

PnL

+$7.52

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$48.74

Value

$57.46

PnL

+$8.71

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.11

Value

$45.93

PnL

+$4.21

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.62

Value

$36.48

PnL

+$3.86

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.62

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$16.27

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

60-149 (209)

balthazar

Invested

$100.88

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$8.21

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.3%

9.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$782.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

882.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.