Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on November 14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $417 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$416.62
-$35.05
97.7¢ → 98¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $171.65 | $173.91 | +$2.26 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $123.63 | $121.25 | -$2.38 | 30% 993-2362 (3355) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $42.25 | $42.25 | +$0 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $39.26 | $38.8 | -$0.46 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
VI vibing123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $45.68 | $25.33 | -$20.35 | 62% 1125-676 (1801) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $12.1 | $11.83 | -$0.27 | 27% 976-2603 (3579) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $26.97 | $3.06 | -$7.64 | 45% 4975-6198 (11173) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.55 | $0.18 | -$6.2 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
Invested
$171.65
Value
$173.91
PnL
+$2.26
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$123.63
Value
$121.25
PnL
-$2.38
Record
30%
993-2362 (3355)
Invested
$42.25
Value
$42.25
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$39.26
Value
$38.8
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$45.68
Value
$25.33
PnL
-$20.35
Record
62%
1125-676 (1801)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$11.83
PnL
-$0.27
Record
27%
976-2603 (3579)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$26.97
Value
$3.06
PnL
-$7.64
Record
45%
4975-6198 (11173)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.55
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$6.2
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.