Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on November 14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$86.35
-$73.59
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 1095-12 (1107) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.98 | $5.99 | +$0 | 29% 1063-2631 (3694) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $27.29 | $0.15 | -$27.14 | 26% 43-125 (168) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.93 | $0.07 | -$11.86 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.82 | $0.06 | -$10.76 | 45% 4975-6198 (11173) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.55 | $0.05 | -$9.5 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.45 | $0.05 | -$9.4 | 36% 3652-6517 (10169) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | $0.03 | -$4.52 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 37% 1484-2495 (3979) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
1095-12 (1107)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
1063-2631 (3694)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$27.14
Record
26%
43-125 (168)
Invested
$11.93
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$11.86
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.82
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.76
Record
45%
4975-6198 (11173)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.55
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.5
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.4
Record
36%
3652-6517 (10169)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.52
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
37%
1484-2495 (3979)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.