Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 4.4¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$119.1

Combined PnL

-$4.68

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$106.3

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes5 traders

Total Value$12.8

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$4.63

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$42.16	$42.16	+$0	43% 910-1218 (2128)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$30.29	$30.31	+$0.02	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$29.01	$28.95	-$0.06	31% 155-351 (506)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.64	$6.32	-$4.32	58% 1171-835 (2006)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$4.88	$4.87	-$0.01	60% 542-365 (907)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$4.36	$3.6	-$0.76	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$2.26	$1.43	+$0.61	53% 1117-973 (2090)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$1.45	$1.35	-$0.1	37% 467-800 (1267)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.16	$0.1	-$0.07	29% 126-306 (432)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$42.16

Value

$42.16

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

910-1218 (2128)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.29

Value

$30.31

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.01

Value

$28.95

PnL

-$0.06

Record

31%

155-351 (506)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.64

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$4.32

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

60%

542-365 (907)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.36

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.76

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.07

Record

29%

126-306 (432)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.7%

4.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1668.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

1768.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.