Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on November 13?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 59¢ · $989 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$988.85
$41.57
64.6¢ → 58.5¢
-10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $585.66 | $531.63 | -$54.03 | 61% 2171-1370 (3541) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $120.84 | $187.09 | +$66.25 | 59% 1169-826 (1995) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $123.5 | $114.07 | -$9.42 | 37% 457-784 (1241) |
BI BilberryCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $64 | $111.78 | +$47.78 | 33% 22-44 (66) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $27.8 | $23.4 | -$4.4 | 53% 6205-5498 (11703) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $38.31 | $19.24 | -$4.56 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $1.66 | $1.62 | -$0.04 | 75% 712-239 (951) |
Invested
$585.66
Value
$531.63
PnL
-$54.03
Record
61%
2171-1370 (3541)
Invested
$120.84
Value
$187.09
PnL
+$66.25
Record
59%
1169-826 (1995)
Invested
$123.5
Value
$114.07
PnL
-$9.42
Record
37%
457-784 (1241)
Invested
$64
Value
$111.78
PnL
+$47.78
Record
33%
22-44 (66)
Invested
$27.8
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$4.4
Record
53%
6205-5498 (11703)
Invested
$38.31
Value
$19.24
PnL
-$4.56
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$0.04
Record
75%
712-239 (951)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.