Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 13?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 45¢ · $346 held · ends Nov 13

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$345.78

Combined PnL

$64.89

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 44.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$265.49

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$60.25

No5 traders

Total Value$80.14

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$4.65

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 39.8¢	$197.63	$148.16	+$56.9	59% 1169-826 (1995)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.6¢	$80.86	$77.72	+$0.95	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$37.21	$39.61	+$2.4	37% 457-784 (1241)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$32	$34.05	+$2.05	33% 22-44 (66)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 51¢	$20.4	$22.2	+$1.8	53% 6205-5498 (11703)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 51¢	$15.3	$16.65	+$1.35	19% 114-491 (605)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60¢	$5.22	$4.44	-$0.78	54% 997-856 (1853)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 51¢	$2.58	$2.8	+$0.23	45% 579-699 (1278)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$197.63

Value

$148.16

PnL

+$56.9

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.86

Value

$77.72

PnL

+$0.95

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.21

Value

$39.61

PnL

+$2.4

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$34.05

PnL

+$2.05

Record

33%

22-44 (66)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

6205-5498 (11703)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$1.35

Record

19%

114-491 (605)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.23

Record

45%

579-699 (1278)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.