Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $491 held · ends Nov 13

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$490.85

Combined PnL

-$1.91

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 90.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$384.95

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$32.44

Yes3 traders

Total Value$105.9

Total Shares856

Combined PnL-$34.35

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 81.6¢	$381.08	$304.64	+$29.2	59% 1169-826 (1995)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 17.3¢	$113.97	$85.86	-$28.11	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$28.33	$30.92	+$2.6	53% 6205-5498 (11703)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.1	$27.15	+$1.05	26% 892-2526 (3418)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$22.47	$14.53	-$7.93	37% 457-784 (1241)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88¢	$10.82	$10.7	-$0.12	75% 712-239 (951)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$8.34	$6.97	-$0.46	54% 997-856 (1853)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.94	$5.5	+$1.7	36% 3514-6115 (9629)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.39	$4.57	+$0.18	48% 558-608 (1166)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$381.08

Value

$304.64

PnL

+$29.2

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.97

Value

$85.86

PnL

-$28.11

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.33

Value

$30.92

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

6205-5498 (11703)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$27.15

PnL

+$1.05

Record

26%

892-2526 (3418)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.47

Value

$14.53

PnL

-$7.93

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.82

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.12

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

$6.97

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.94

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$1.7

Record

36%

3514-6115 (9629)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

558-608 (1166)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.