Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$191.57
$0.59
98¢ → 96.4¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $73.38 | $73.7 | +$0.32 | 29% 885-2138 (3023) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $44.76 | $44.88 | +$0.12 | 38% 3346-5401 (8747) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $35.33 | $35.36 | +$0.02 | 25% 82-244 (326) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.65 | +$0.05 | 53% 5788-5165 (10953) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $12.58 | $12.58 | +$0 | 40% 1346-2016 (3362) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $5.34 | $5.4 | +$0.07 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
Invested
$73.38
Value
$73.7
PnL
+$0.32
Record
29%
885-2138 (3023)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$44.76
Value
$44.88
PnL
+$0.12
Record
38%
3346-5401 (8747)
Invested
$35.33
Value
$35.36
PnL
+$0.02
Record
25%
82-244 (326)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5788-5165 (10953)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$12.58
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1346-2016 (3362)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.