Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on November 12?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $401 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$400.63
$3.77
72.2¢ → 76¢
+5% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 74¢ | $125.99 | $127.69 | +$1.7 | 68% 2098-982 (3080) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $114.24 | $122.06 | +$7.82 | 61% 1149-749 (1898) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $77.57 | $75.47 | -$2.1 | 17% 78-376 (454) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $30.4 | $27.2 | -$3.2 | 53% 5788-5165 (10953) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $23.63 | $19.07 | +$2.18 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $13.6 | -$1.2 | 34% 345-674 (1019) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $8.83 | $8.7 | -$0.13 | 40% 1346-2016 (3362) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.24 | $3.43 | -$0.81 | 78% 607-176 (783) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.4 | -$0.5 | 38% 3346-5401 (8747) |
Invested
$125.99
Value
$127.69
PnL
+$1.7
Record
68%
2098-982 (3080)
Invested
$114.24
Value
$122.06
PnL
+$7.82
Record
61%
1149-749 (1898)
Invested
$77.57
Value
$75.47
PnL
-$2.1
Record
17%
78-376 (454)
Invested
$30.4
Value
$27.2
PnL
-$3.2
Record
53%
5788-5165 (10953)
Invested
$23.63
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$2.18
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$13.6
PnL
-$1.2
Record
34%
345-674 (1019)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$0.13
Record
40%
1346-2016 (3362)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$0.81
Record
78%
607-176 (783)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.5
Record
38%
3346-5401 (8747)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.