Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 57¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$254.17
$9.58
52.8¢ → 57.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $186.43 | $199.12 | +$12.68 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $26.49 | $25.12 | -$1.37 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $19.15 | $18.02 | -$1.13 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $11 | -$0.6 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $0.92 | $0.92 | +$0 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
Invested
$186.43
Value
$199.12
PnL
+$12.68
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.49
Value
$25.12
PnL
-$1.37
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$19.15
Value
$18.02
PnL
-$1.13
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.6
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.92
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.