Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 12?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 33¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 12

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$164.89

Combined PnL

$17.31

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$117.18

Total Shares379

Combined PnL+$20.85

No3 traders

Total Value$47.71

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$3.53

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$61.12	$72.78	+$11.66	68% 2062-951 (3013)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$30.02	$37.9	+$7.89	61% 1144-746 (1890)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72¢	$32.89	$30.83	-$2.06	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.8	$13.5	-$1.3	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.2	$6.5	+$1.3	31% 276-616 (892)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.38	-$0.17	80% 550-134 (684)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.12

Value

$72.78

PnL

+$11.66

Record

68%

2062-951 (3013)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.02

Value

$37.9

PnL

+$7.89

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$32.89

Value

$30.83

PnL

-$2.06

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$1.3

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

31%

276-616 (892)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.17

Record

80%

550-134 (684)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.