Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$119.56
-$1.66
94.6¢ → 96.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $71.71 | $68.51 | -$3.2 | 27% 108-285 (393) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $19.12 | +$0.92 | 53% 5788-5165 (10953) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $11.64 | $12.17 | +$0.52 | 68% 2098-982 (3080) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $12.29 | $11.69 | -$0.6 | 40% 1346-2016 (3362) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $14.88 | $6.34 | +$0.42 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $1.46 | $1.73 | +$0.27 | 34% 345-674 (1019) |
Invested
$71.71
Value
$68.51
PnL
-$3.2
Record
27%
108-285 (393)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$19.12
PnL
+$0.92
Record
53%
5788-5165 (10953)
Invested
$11.64
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$0.52
Record
68%
2098-982 (3080)
Invested
$12.29
Value
$11.69
PnL
-$0.6
Record
40%
1346-2016 (3362)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$6.34
PnL
+$0.42
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.27
Record
34%
345-674 (1019)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.