Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $121 held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$120.86

Combined PnL

-$33.61

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 98¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$111.01

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.82

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.85

Total Shares469

Combined PnL-$32.79

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$43.28	$42.67	-$0.61	26% 871-2505 (3376)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$36.05	$36.22	+$0.17	53% 920-807 (1727)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.66	-$0.24	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.72	$6.86	-$22.85	59% 1163-798 (1961)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.06	$4.99	-$0.07	48% 506-556 (1062)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.04	$4.97	-$0.07	47% 522-594 (1116)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.92	$2.98	-$9.93	63% 2143-1253 (3396)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 667-8 (675)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$43.28

Value

$42.67

PnL

-$0.61

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$36.05

Value

$36.22

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.66

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.72

Value

$6.86

PnL

-$22.85

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

506-556 (1062)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

522-594 (1116)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.92

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$9.93

Record

63%

2143-1253 (3396)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

667-8 (675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.