Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on November 11?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $32 held · ended Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$32.41

Combined PnL

-$0.02

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$32.4

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.13	$10.12	-$0.01	45% 453-544 (997)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7	$7	-$0	99% 344-2 (346)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.15	-$0	42% 749-1019 (1768)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.13	$5.13	-$0	51% 403-393 (796)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	38% 3334-5399 (8733)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	49% 419-432 (851)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

453-544 (997)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

344-2 (346)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

749-1019 (1768)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

403-393 (796)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

3334-5399 (8733)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

419-432 (851)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.