Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.5K
-$24.63
79.1¢ → 78¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $804.27 | $760.08 | -$44.19 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $646.32 | $667.62 | +$21.3 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $26.34 | $22.8 | -$3.54 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $20.94 | $22.72 | +$1.79 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $14.57 | $14.3 | -$0.28 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $2.6 | $2.89 | +$0.29 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
Invested
$804.27
Value
$760.08
PnL
-$44.19
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$646.32
Value
$667.62
PnL
+$21.3
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$26.34
Value
$22.8
PnL
-$3.54
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$20.94
Value
$22.72
PnL
+$1.79
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$14.57
Value
$14.3
PnL
-$0.28
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$0.29
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.