Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $30 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$30.34
$0.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.97 | $14.98 | +$0.01 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.99 | +$0.01 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 100% 95-0 (95) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.84 | $1.84 | -$0 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 34% 199-384 (583) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.97
Value
$14.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
95-0 (95)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
199-384 (583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.