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NoYes
balthazar<$100NoYesNoYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
No 50%
Total Value
$280
Combined PnL
$3.87
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$280
Total Shares280
Combined PnL+$22.44
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares74
Combined PnL-$18.57
No — 38%Yes — 62%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $257.56 | $280 | +$22.44 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $18.57 | — | -$18.57 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20984-13348 (34332) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6484-5687 (12171) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 300-1148 (1448) |
24
241532532432Invested
$257.56
Value
$280
PnL
+$22.44
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$18.57
Value
—
PnL
-$18.57
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20984-13348 (34332)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6484-5687 (12171)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
300-1148 (1448)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0daaf887...c17524
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-october-30-2026-24c