Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 81¢ · $256 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$255.78
-$29.11
90.1¢ → 81¢
-10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 90.9¢ | $188.05 | $166.42 | -$4.5 | 55% 340-274 (614) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.5 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $56.72 | $32.08 | -$24.64 | 50% 1726-1710 (3436) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $6.05 | $6.5 | +$0.45 | 59% 1692-1154 (2846) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.7 | $0.78 | +$0.08 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
Invested
$188.05
Value
$166.42
PnL
-$4.5
Record
55%
340-274 (614)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
22%
291-1025 (1316)
Invested
$56.72
Value
$32.08
PnL
-$24.64
Record
50%
1726-1710 (3436)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0.45
Record
59%
1692-1154 (2846)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.78
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.