Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 6.0¢ · $367 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$367.13
-$78.38
55.5¢ → 6¢
-89% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $226.29 | $219 | -$3.38 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.1¢ | $87.9 | $173.01 | +$85.11 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $132.49 | $45.99 | -$88.49 | |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $77.26 | $95.09 | +$14.86 | 55% 302-247 (549) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $131.27 | $44.5 | -$86.77 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.88 | $7.91 | +$2.03 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $9.99 | $0.63 | -$8.49 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$226.29
Value
$219
PnL
-$3.38
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.26
Value
$95.09
PnL
+$14.86
Record
55%
302-247 (549)
Invested
$131.27
Value
$44.5
PnL
-$86.77
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$7.91
PnL
+$2.03
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$8.49
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.